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Mortgage News Daily
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Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal.
Market Movement Recap
09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.528
10:40 AM 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.552 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).
03:27 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.555.
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Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week's Jump
Mon, 08 Jun 2026 20
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or "CPI").
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Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News
Mon, 08 Jun 2026 15
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend far beyond mortgage rates. In a candid interview with Robbie Chrisman, Spector shares his views on housing supply, homeowner lock-in, regulatory reform, and how technology could fundamentally reshape the mortgage experience. Hear from a couple veteran LOs about how the lowest rate isn't always the best mortgage advice and how the best mortgage solution isn't always the obvious one. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Littler’s Colton Long on how employers are increasingly responding to employee departures with legal action over alleged non-solicitation, confidentiality, and trade secret violations.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
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Traders Cautiously Buying The Dip
Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday's rout.
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At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon, but traders will be a bit more interested in labor market data going forward.
Econ Data / Events
Non Farm Payrolls (May)
172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev
Participation Rate (May)
61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev
Unemployment rate mm (May)
4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev
Market Movement Recap
08:38 AM Big selling after jobs report. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.533
10:46 AM MBS down 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.541
04:27 PM MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.539
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Mortgage Rates Jump After Strong Jobs Report
Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report not only crushed expectations, but it revised the past 2 reports sharply higher as well. The net effect is that the labor market looks more like it's finding its footing (possibly even accelerating) and less like it is still in the downtrend that characterized the post-covid normalization. If all that was confusing, here's the simple version. More people got jobs than expected and the market didn't like it because it removes any argument in favor of the Fed cutting rates. Fed rates don't equal mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations for the future cause mortgage rate movement in the present (and Treasury movement, and stock market movement, etc.). On a bright note, even after today's rout, the average lender remains under the highs seen on May 19th. The Iran war is still the most important input for rates, and a confirmed peace deal would still provide relief.
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Mortgage Apps Pull Back Modestly
Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18
Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also pulled back, though the move was more modest. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3% week over week and was still 7% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.57% from 6.65%, but the drop was not enough to spark a meaningful pickup in demand. MBA’s Joel Kan said easing energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East helped push rates slightly lower, though “the retreat in rates... did not lead to an increase in mortgage applications.” Kan added that purchase applications were still ahead of last year’s pace, but were at their slowest weekly level since April, while refinance activity was at its weakest since last June. He also noted that the 30-year fixed rate eased to 6.57%, while the 5-year ARM rate edged higher, reflecting a flattening yield curve.
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Tech Stack Mgt, Verification, DSCR, 2nd Products; In-Person Mortgage Events; What's Moving Rates?
Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14
Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy following money around, every time someone in Europe taps a card at a cafe in Lyon or a pharmacy in Munich, the transaction data leaves the continent. The data flows through servers in the United States, is processed by Visa or Mastercard, and then goes back to Europe. The money moves but the data stays somewhere in America. We’re talking about $24 trillion in annual transaction volume through those two networks. Card payments represent 56 percent of all cashless transactions in the EU. Virtually none of it runs on European infrastructure! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian and the Experian Verify Hub. The platform brings manual submissions in-house and consolidates post-submission activities into a single environment, aiming to provide more streamlined access, faster insights, and a more cohesive user experience. Today’s has an interview with MeridianLink's Larry Katz on how to simplify the complexity behind lending while empowering financial institutions to focus on what matters most: the people and communities they serve.)
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Job Market Says "I'm Not Dead Yet." Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well.
Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll count has been higher since Fall 2025. This is also apparent in the charts and it can be partially (maybe fully?) explained by the ongoing drop in survey response rates, both for consumers businesses (note the BLS data on response rates only runs through Jan/Feb).
Meanwhile, the bond market left no doubt that it is more than willing to react to econ data if that data is important enough. 10yr yields are up 5.5bps instantly and MBS are down almost half a point.
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Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm. Friday brings the jobs report. While it hasn't been as big of a flashpoint recently, we'd never rule out a reaction in the event of a big beat/miss.
Econ Data / Events
Jobless Claims (May)/30
225K vs 213K f'cast, 215K prev
Market Movement Recap
08:42 AM Decently stronger overnight and no drama so far. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.455
11:34 AM Sideways so far and just a hair weaker. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.465
03:31 PM Treasuries near weakest levels but 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.471. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19).
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